알림 목록

Analysis Area: Busan Metropolitan City

Core Area: Tourism living zone of 16 districts and counties in Busan, including Haeundae-gu and Yeongdo-gu

Agenda: Determine whether the increase in tourists translates into longer stay, accommodation, consumption, local commercial activity, and repeat visits.

Golden Time Type: Visitor Growth + Value Conversion Risk

Reference Date: 2026.08.28

Version: Regional AX Golden Time Intelligence v3.2 Enhancement Standard
 

The number of foreign tourists in Busan was recorded at approximately 3.349 million in 2025, and the Busan Metropolitan City government has set a target of 5 million foreign tourists and 1.5 trillion won in tourism expenditure by 2028. The outward focus of tourism policy has shifted from recovering visitor numbers to expanding the scale of the city as an international tourism hub. However, public runtime data linking the number of tourists, duration of stay, number of nights, card spending, movement patterns, and repeat visits to the same visitor groups and travel units has not been verified. If the inflow policy aimed at attracting 5 million visitors between 2026 and 2028 becomes entrenched first, per capita spending and the expansion of local commercial districts will remain lagging indicators.  It is assessed that while Busan tourism has reached the stage of visitor growth, it has not yet reached the stage of assessing the value of visits in real time.

It was disclosed that cumulative tourism expenditure by foreign visitors through June 2026 totaled 623.9 billion won, with expenditure for the month of June alone reaching 137 billion won. This confirms a shift in the measurement unit of Busan tourism, expanding from the number of visitors to actual consumption. However, the detailed runtime disclosed by combining expenditure with visitor numbers, length of stay, nationality, purpose of visit, district/county, and industry type is limited. If only total expenditure increases over the next two to three years, it becomes difficult to distinguish between the effects of prices, exchange rates, and high-spending groups, and the consumption shift of the entire tourist population.  While the total amount of tourism consumption is confirmed, changes in value per tourist, per night, and per hour are deemed unconfirmed.

Foreign tourist spending during the October festival period in 2025 amounted to 32.765 billion won, a 34.6% increase compared to the same period of the previous year, which was approximately 2.5 times the national growth rate of 13.6%. The festival demonstrated the potential to shift from attracting visitors to providing stay-type content that stimulates consumption throughout the city. However, the publicly available evidence does not sufficiently confirm where the increase occurred—among accommodation, food, shopping, and transportation—or whether it spread to commercial areas outside the host city. If large-scale events are repeated from 2026 to 2028 with a focus on visitors and total revenue, the distinction between temporary concentration and urban economic diffusion will disappear.  While the consumption effects of large-scale festivals are confirmed, the spatial and sector-specific trickle-down effects are still judged to be in a partially verified state.

According to the 2025 survey on the status of tourists visiting Busan, exploring food and famous restaurants was identified as the number one purpose of visit at 68.8%. Motives for Busan tourism are expanding from a focus on beaches and scenery to a time-consuming structure that combines gourmet dining, nightlife, performances, and experiential activities. However, there is no publicly available "Journey Evidence" confirming whether visits for culinary purposes actually led to food and beverage spending, extended overnight stays, extended accommodations, or repeat visits. Even if the supply of content increases between 2026 and 2028, if the duration of stay and travel routes are not connected, the number of tourists may increase while the value of the stay remains stagnant. The  "Golden Time" for Busan tourism is assessed to be the two to three years during which visit time is converted into consumption and repeat visits, rather than simply attracting tourists.

Golden Time Thesis — The structural risk to Busan tourism does not lie in the fact that tourists are not coming. It lies in the fact that the goal of 5 million visitors becomes entrenched first, without the flow of events—when tourists arrive, where they go, how long they stay, what they spend, and how they revisit—being connected as a single journey.

Busan possesses tourism assets including beach tourism in Haeundae, Gwangalli, and Songjeong; downtown tourism in Nampo, Jagalchi, and International Market; marine and cultural tourism in Yeongdo; coastal and leisure tourism in Gijang; and ecological, industrial, and Nakdong River tourism assets in West Busan. The tourism structure is shifting from visiting a single beach to multi-purpose urban tourism that combines gastronomy, nightlife, festivals, performances, and marine leisure. However, regular public data linking visitors by tourist destination into a single travel route, as well as the rate of movement transition between regions, have not been verified. If content expands individually by region between 2026 and 2028, travel routes may become concentrated in the core areas of East Busan, even if the number of tourism assets increases.  Although Busan possesses multi-core tourism assets, actual visitor travel patterns have not yet been verified as a single urban tourism network.

There is a demand for approximately 1.65 million additional visitors between the projected 3.349 million foreign tourists in 2025 and the 2028 target of 5 million. The foreign tourism market has moved beyond the recovery phase and into a phase of scale expansion. However, publicly available capacity data combining hourly capacities for rooms, transportation, interpretation, payment, tourist information, and night services to accommodate 5 million visitors is unavailable. If the increase in visitors between 2026 and 2028 is concentrated during the peak season and in the Haeundae area, congestion will reach its limit at specific times and locations even if the city's overall facilities remain operational.  The scale risk of Busan tourism is assessed based on the lack of measurement of capacity by time and space, rather than on annual capacity.

Cumulative foreign tourism expenditure through June 2026 amounted to 623.9 billion won. A structure has been established where the scale of the tourism economy is observed not only by the number of visitors but also by card and payment-based spending. However, the scope of inclusion for cash, overseas cards, mobile payments, and online advance payments, as well as the criteria for attributing accommodation, airfare, and transportation costs, cannot be fully verified solely through publicly available figures. If calculation standards change over a period of two to three years, it is difficult to determine whether annual expenditure increases reflect actual consumption growth or changes in the scope of capture.  While the scale of tourism expenditure in Busan is confirmed, it is determined that further verification is required regarding measurement consistency for long-term comparisons.

In 2025, food and restaurant hopping accounted for 68.8% of visit purposes. The focus of tourism demand has shifted from sightseeing to tourism that involves eating, experiencing, and spending time. However, publicly available data does not reveal how the average expenditure, length of stay, occupancy rate, and visited regions of food-focused tourists differ from those of tourists with other purposes. Even if gourmet content expands between 2026 and 2028, if actual travel time is not extended, expenditure items may merely be replaced within the existing duration of the visit.  While gastronomy is a major demand asset for Busan, the net increase in the value of stay is deemed unconfirmed.

The number of foreign tourists in Busan increased to approximately 3.349 million in 2025, and foreign tourism spending in the first half of 2026 exceeded 600 billion won. Signs of growth, with both visitors and spending increasing simultaneously, are confirmed. However, publicly available standardized indicators linking spending per tourist, spending per night, average length of stay, and the proportion of day tourists over the same period are limited. If only the total volume increase for 2026–2028 is evaluated, value dilution—where the consumption growth rate falls lower than the visitor growth rate—cannot be detected early.  While the growth of Busan tourism is confirmed, the quality of that growth cannot be fully assessed.

Festival October integrated various events and content within a single period, increasing foreign consumer spending by 34.6% compared to the same period last year. The structure expanded from the operation of individual festivals to a tourism portfolio that links the entire city's schedule and consumption. However, overlapping visits between festivals, extended stays, additional stays before and after events, and the spread of sales by region are not linked in the publicly available data. If only the number of events and total expenditure are managed over the next two to three years, it becomes impossible to distinguish between the timing shift of existing consumption and the creation of new consumption.  While the aggregation of festivals led to increased consumption, the net increase in the length of stay in the city is deemed unconfirmed.

Star Sea Busan’s night tourism, gourmet tourism, workcations, marine leisure sports, and performance tourism are contents that extend daytime-centric tourism hours to include nights, weekdays, and off-peak seasons. Tourism supply is being reorganized from a location-centric approach to one centered on time of day and purpose. However, the rate at which nighttime visits lead to actual overnight stays and the extent to which weekday workcations connect to consumption in local commercial districts are not confirmed as common outcomes. Once the number of participants per program is accumulated for 2026–2028, the shift in time of daytime visits and the increase in total length of stay cannot be distinguished.  While Busan possesses time-extending content, the ecosystem for verifying the increase in net length of stay is incomplete.

The Busan Tourism Portal provides information on tourist attractions, food, festivals, performances, and marine leisure, while tourism statistics disclose visitor numbers and spending. The structure involves digitized information provision and performance observation. However, a public structure where search, recommendation, reservation, navigation, payment, satisfaction, and revisit are connected as a single travel session has not been identified. If content and statistics remain separated for two to three years, it becomes impossible to learn which information actually drove visits and consumption.  While a digital foundation for Busan tourism exists, an ecosystem extending from demand discovery to outcomes has not been confirmed.

Smartphone search, map, traffic, and payment data from tourists have created an environment where duration of stay and movement patterns can be observed more precisely than the number of visitors. Tourism measurement is shifting from immigration and accommodation statistics to movement by time of day and consumption by industry. However, Busan’s publicly available Runtime, which combines data on communication mobility, card spending, accommodation, transportation, and event participation based on the same spatial and temporal standards, has not been verified. If data for 2026–2028 is separated by provider, tourism policy will continue to rely on the total volume of visitors. Although  the technological environment has reached the stage of analyzing the travel process, Busan’s joint observation system is judged to be at the level of partial data.

Night tourism, performances, and gastronomy are structures that commodify the city's idle time rather than addressing a lack of tourism resources. The unit of tourism competition has shifted from the number of attractions to the actual time available for consumption within the 24-hour period. However, publicly available data linking the resident population, commercial sales, traffic closures, safety incidents, and overnight conversions during afternoon, evening, and late-night hours is limited. If nighttime content remains separated from traffic and commercial operating hours for two to three years, visitor numbers may increase, but extended stays may not occur.  Busan's night tourism is currently in the content expansion phase, and the completeness of the time-based economy is deemed unconfirmed.

Gastronomy, K-content, performances, and festivals are sectors where consumer responses vary rapidly depending on nationality and travel purpose. The unit of tourism products has shifted from providing the same attractions to all tourists to travel routes tailored to specific market segments. However, there is no publicly available experimental evidence confirming how recommendations based on nationality, age, travel companions, and purpose of visit have actually changed stays, spending, and repeat visits. If the same promotional activities are repeated between 2026 and 2028, the increase in visitors and differences in profitability across markets will be obscured.  It is assessed that while Busan's demand structure has become segmented, performance evaluations remain centered on the total number of tourists.

Climate change, heatwaves, and torrential rains directly alter the operating hours of beach and outdoor event-centered tourism. Seasonality shifts from a concentration during the summer peak season to a structure combining weather risks with alternative demand for indoor and nighttime activities. The runtime of tourism risk in Busan, linking weather, event cancellations, visitor declines, reservation cancellations, and commercial revenue, has not been confirmed. If weather variability increases over the next two to three years, the revenue stability of local businesses may decrease even if annual visitor targets are met.  The climate readiness of Busan tourism is assessed as lower in demand conversion forecasting than in content possession.

Busan City has set a target of 5 million foreign tourists and 1.5 trillion won in tourism expenditure by 2028, and has expanded night, marine, gastronomic, and stay-type tourism products. A shift in policy objectives is confirmed, expanding from a single visitor count to a dual indicator of both visitors and expenditure. However, average length of stay, number of nights of accommodation, repeat visits, and the spread of expenditure by district and county were not presented as equivalent higher-level goals. If the number and total amount become entrenched as the central KPIs for the period 2026–2028, the regional and temporal distribution of tourism value will remain a lower priority. While  the current response is shifting toward measuring tourism value, it is assessed as being at an intermediate stage centered on total expenditure.

Star Sea Busan, Gourmet Tourism, Busan Tourism Leisure 365, 24-Hour Busan, and Workation are responses that extend tourism hours to include nights, weekdays, and off-peak seasons. They have secured the conditions for visitors' itineraries to shift from a single visit to a stay-type trip combining multiple content. However, there is no publicly available evidence verifying the effects of cross-use between programs and extended stays based on the same visitors. If the performance of individual programs is separated over a period of 2 to 3 years, the combined effects between contents cannot be measured. While  the scope of the stay-type response has expanded, the outcomes at the travel unit level are deemed unconfirmed.

Requests have been registered in Big-Data Wave regarding visitor dwell time, movement patterns, and sales in nearby commercial districts for Yeongdo performances, as well as pedestrian traffic, sales effects, and foreign tourist satisfaction analyses for the Gwangbok-ro Festival. The evaluation of tourism events is shifting from simple participant counts to analyses of movement, consumption, and commercial district effects. However, since the analysis is conducted on an individual request or event basis, an automated, publicly available runtime applicable to all major projects has not been identified. If request-based analysis continues through 2026–2028, comparisons between events and long-term learning will not be accumulated.  The Busan Tourism AX is currently at a stage where demand for analysis has been confirmed, but its expansion into a standard operating system remains unconfirmed.

Busan Tourism Statistics discloses the spending of foreign visitors and the proportion of each industry, while the Busan Tourism Portal provides travel information. Both data disclosure and tourism information services exist. However, the history of decision-making in which statistics were actually reflected in content recommendations, budget allocation, and event schedule adjustments cannot be found in the publicly available data. If data disclosure and policy decisions remain separated for two to three years, AX remains at the level of statistical visualization.  It is assessed that while the current response possesses observation infrastructure, the repeatability of data-driven decision-making has not been confirmed.

Busan possesses an international airport, international passenger terminal, cruise port, and KTX, enabling it to accommodate tourists via air, rail, and sea simultaneously. Its tourism entry routes are more diverse than those of cities dependent on a single international airport. However, there is no publicly available data comparing length of stay, number of nights, expenditure, or repeat visits by entry method. If the value of each route is not measured while discussions regarding the Gadeokdo New Airport and the expansion of cruise and international flights are underway between 2026 and 2028, the effect of city stay will remain fragmented, even if the inflow by transportation method increases. While  Busan possesses strong accessibility assets, there is a lack of comparative evidence to translate entry routes into tourism value.

During the October 2025 Festival, the 34.6% increase in foreign consumer spending in Busan was approximately 21 percentage points higher than the national average of 13.6%. This serves as evidence that the concentration of events in Busan during a specific period generated a stronger consumer response than the national average. However, data comparing the increase in visitors and the increase in overnight stays in Busan together has not been confirmed. When high growth rates during specific periods over two to three years become generalized into an annual structure, base effects and event effects become intertwined. While  Busan demonstrated a comparative advantage in consumption growth during the event period, its competitive edge in year-round stays has not yet been definitively established.

Seoul features a high-density stay structure combining shopping, performances, medical services, business, and transit, while Jeju’s spatial condition as an island encourages overnight stays. Busan combines marine activities, gastronomy, festivals, and urban transportation, yet it is also a city suitable for day trips or short-term visits. Recent publicly available data comparing per capita tourist spending, number of nights stayed, and nighttime consumption in Busan, Seoul, and Jeju using the same criteria is limited. Comparing only the visitor volume for 2026–2028 reveals Busan’s actual competitive units: value per hour and per night.  Busan’s relative position within the domestic market is determined to be unclear due to the data gap in comparing stay values, rather than visitor rankings.

Busan confirmed that the proportion of visitors seeking food and gourmet dining accounted for 68.8% by 2025, and possesses the Michelin Guide, traditional markets, cafes, seafood, and nighttime gourmet dining. It is a city where both the supply and demand for gastronomy are simultaneously confirmed. However, evidence comparing the average visitor spending, commercial area dispersion, extended stays, and repeat visits of gourmet visitors with other cities has not been confirmed. If gourmet brands accumulate solely as promotional indicators over two to three years, high motivation to visit does not translate into high-value-added competitiveness.  Busan is judged to be a leading signal regarding gourmet demand assets, but is in the early stages of verifying its gourmet tourism economy.

Connecting the approximately 3.349 million foreign tourists in 2025 with the 2028 target of 5 million requires an additional 49% increase in visitors over three years. Simply dividing the tourism expenditure of 1.5 trillion won for the same target by 5 million yields approximately 300,000 won per foreigner; however, this value cannot be used as the official average visitor value due to differences in the calculation scope and reference period. Currently, per-person and per-night standards are not confirmed in the official targets. If only the total volume target for 2026–2028 is managed, it is impossible to distinguish whether the expenditure target was met due to an increase in tourists or whether individual value has risen.  Busan's 5 million visitor target is judged to have a clear visitor scale, but the criteria for value conversion are incomplete.

Connecting the 137 billion won in foreign spending in June 2026 with the cumulative total of 623.9 billion won reveals a tourism economy characterized by significant monthly volatility. The structure is such that monthly spending varies depending on peak seasons, festivals, exchange rates, and the composition of nationalities. Public runtime data linking the number of visitors, number of nights stayed, event schedules, and sales by industry for the same month is limited. Comparing only cumulative figures over two to three years makes it impossible to determine which specific content or time periods generated the spending.  While an increase in Busan's tourism spending is observed, the decomposition of the causes of this growth is deemed incomplete.

Foreign consumer spending during the October festival period amounted to 32.765 billion won, an increase of 8.43 billion won compared to the previous year. During the same period, the average length of stay was reported to have changed slightly from 2.99 days to approximately 3 days. Although spending increased by 34.6%, the change in the length of stay was limited, leaving open the possibility that the increase in consumption stemmed from factors such as the average price per visitor, the number of visitors, prices, and the composition of nationalities, rather than an extension of stay. Decomposition data for these constituent factors has not been confirmed.  This case is judged to be evidence that an increase in consumption and an increase in the length of stay are not identical.

Linking the 68.8% purpose of visiting food and eateries with foreign spending confirms the possibility that food and beverages serve as a major channel for enhancing Busan's tourism value. However, purpose responses and actual card spending are separate data points and were not linked based on the same visitor base. Even with a high purpose of visit, consumption may be concentrated in specific commercial districts or high-end sectors. When the two datasets are separated for 2026–2028, the scale of gourmet tourism and the expansion of the local economy become intertwined.  While the magnitude of gourmet demand has been confirmed, the spatial distribution of actual added value is determined to be a data gap.

The number of tourists, length of stay, duration of stay, spending, and return visit rates must be sequentially linked. Currently, while Busan discloses visitor numbers and total expenditures, the entire chain of travel units is not verified. This structure means that the growth of a single indicator does not guarantee the growth of others. If interconnected indicators are not established over a period of two to three years, the net value added gained by the city cannot be calculated even retrospectively, even if the number of tourists increases.  The largest numerical gap in Busan tourism exists between the number of tourists and the city's economic outcome.

The first gap is the absence of a visitor Journey ID . Data on entry, transportation, accommodation, tourist attractions, payments, events, and satisfaction exist separately. However, a privacy-protected common Journey connecting a single trip to Busan from arrival to departure is not found in public evidence. If channel-specific data is expanded independently between 2026 and 2028, integration costs and conflicts in standards will increase.  The biggest gap in Busan tourism is determined to be the discontinuity of travel units rather than the volume of data.

The second gap is the separation of dwell time and consumption . While telecommunications data shows the duration of stay and credit card data shows expenditure, the hourly consumption of the same visitor and the movement effects between locations are not disclosed. It is not directly possible to determine whether tourists who stay longer spend more, or whether staying in free spaces leads to consumption in nearby commercial areas. If the two data sets are separated over the next two to three years, the effectiveness of stay-type tourism will be evaluated based solely on either the number of nights stayed or total revenue.  Busan's "Readiness" (value of stay) is judged to be low in the combination of time and money.

The third gap is the lack of measurement for spatial diffusion . While visits to representative areas such as Haeundae, Gwangalli, and Nampo are observed, data on the extent to which tourists move to Yeongdo, West Busan, and the alley commercial districts of the old city center is not regularly disclosed. Tourism growth may manifest as a re-concentration in key hubs rather than diffusion across the entire city. Once major projects and content are finalized for 2026–2028, existing travel routes will become entrenched in transportation, accommodation, and commercial investment.  Regional diffusion of Busan tourism exists as a policy objective, but it remains unconfirmed as an outcome.

The fourth gap is the unmeasured nature of repeat visits and relationship continuity . Tourist numbers aggregate first-time and repeat visits, and the reasons why the same individuals choose Busan again are not separated. An open cohort linking satisfaction, search, rebooking, and repeat visits has not been identified. If the cost of attracting new visitors increases over two to three years, cities with a weak repeat visit base become more vulnerable to rising marketing costs.  The sustainability of Busan tourism is judged by the lack of verification in the repeat visit cohort, rather than by visitor growth.

The fifth gap is the separation between the increase in tourists and the costs incurred by residents . While visitor spending boosts local revenue, it also generates burdens related to congestion, noise, rent, waste, and traffic. There is no publicly available data comparing tourism expenditures with residents' living costs within the same region or time period. If visitor numbers become more concentrated between 2026 and 2028, a decline in resident acceptance could result in a deterioration of the tourism experience and regulatory conflicts. Consequently,  the net value of Busan tourism cannot be determined solely by total revenue.

Gimhae Airport, Busan Station, the International Passenger Terminal, and the Cruise Terminal serve as entry infrastructure for visitors via air, rail, and sea. Busan tourism operates as a multi-gateway city rather than a single gateway. However, there is no publicly available data linking travel and departure times from arrival at each gateway to the first tourist attraction, accommodation, or destination for consumption. If transport volume increases at each gateway between 2026 and 2028, waiting and transfers following entry and arrival will encroach upon the duration of stay first.  Access infrastructure is deemed diversified, while the management of travel time after the gateway is assessed as unconfirmed.

Busan possesses facilities for hotels, tourist accommodations, cruises, and workcations, as well as nightlife content. The supply of accommodation has shifted from traditional hotels to a multi-faceted structure that includes business, long-term stays, and marine tourism. However, public capacity indicators that combine room occupancy rates by price range, region, day of the week, and season with the purpose of stay are limited. If only the average number of rooms over a two to three-year period is managed, the dual structure of high prices during peak season and vacancies during off-peak season expands.  While accommodation infrastructure exists, its suitability by time of day and market is deemed unverified.

Big-Data Wave, Busan Tourism Statistics, and the Busan Tourism Portal provide the foundation for utilizing telecommunications, credit card, survey, and tourism information. Tourism data infrastructure is not non-existent; rather, multiple platforms are operating in parallel. However, there is no public evidence confirming that common tourist attraction IDs, event IDs, industry classifications, visitor definitions, update cycles, and APIs are interconnected. As platform-specific advancements proceed between 2026 and 2028, numerical discrepancies in identical metrics will increase decision-making uncertainty. Data infrastructure is assessed as being at an intermediate level, while interoperability readiness is judged to be low.

Gastronomy, performance, marine leisure, MICE, and cruises require service capabilities not only from tourism companies but also from restaurant owners, market vendors, transportation personnel, cultural planners, and accommodation workers. The scope of tourism talent has expanded from a focus on guidance and accommodation to include content, data, multilingualism, and customer experience operations. However, the runtime of Busan's tourism workforce—linking job-specific manpower demand, wages, turnover, foreign language skills, and digital capabilities—has not been verified. If the number of visitors increases while the supply of service personnel stagnates over a period of two to three years, price increases and a decline in experience quality occur simultaneously.  Tourism talent readiness is deemed to be in an unmeasured state when compared to the speed of industry expansion.

Foreign tourist spending increased by 34.6% during the festival period. Evidence confirms that large-scale events actually boosted tourist spending. However, how the increased revenue was distributed between large accommodation, duty-free, and transportation companies and local restaurants, traditional markets, and small business owners is not disclosed. If only total revenue for 2026–2028 remains as performance, the expansion of local businesses and the concentration of specific industries cannot be distinguished. While  the expansion of businesses driven by tourism growth is confirmed at the total amount level, it is deemed unconfirmed at the level of distribution.

Requests were made to analyze visitor movement, duration of stay, and sales in nearby commercial districts regarding the Yeongdo Jazz Performance and the Gwangbok-ro Winter Light Festival. Local governments have also shifted to a stage where they seek to verify commercial district outcomes rather than focusing solely on the number of participants. However, there is no confirmed evidence that this approach applies universally to all events in Busan. If only partial analyses are conducted for two to three years, the gap in tourism budget verification widens between regions with data capabilities and those without.  While analyses of local commercial district outcomes are taking place, their widespread adoption across the entire region is assessed as being in its early stages.

Tourist spending occurs in the living infrastructure of residents, such as restaurants, transportation, and cultural spaces. The tourism economy and the local economy are not separate industries but rather structured to share the same commercial districts and urban services. However, the net effects of increased tourist revenue, reduced resident consumption, congestion, rent, and changes in business hours are not confirmed in publicly available data. If the concentration of tourism hubs intensifies between 2026 and 2028, both revenue growth and residents' living costs may increase simultaneously.  The tourism effect on residents remains unassessed as income and costs are not aggregated.

Tourists prioritize visiting well-known areas such as Haeundae, Gwangalli, and Nampo. The structure is not one where an increase in tourists automatically leads to increased sales for small business owners throughout the city. The rate of movement to other districts and counties after visiting a hub, as well as additional spending, are not regularly disclosed. If existing travel patterns are reinforced over two to three years, the expansion of the local economy may be limited even if new tourism assets increase.  The expansion of local businesses through Busan tourism is deemed incomplete until the rate of movement outside the representative hub is verified.

Haeundae and Suyeong-gu constitute a mature tourism zone where beaches, accommodations, MICE, and nightscapes are concentrated, while Yeongdo, the Old City Center, and West Busan form an expanded tourism zone based on cultural, ecological, and industrial heritage. Busan's tourism spatial structure is not centered on a single point, but rather consists of an asymmetrical structure of mature and potential hubs. However, no public dashboard comparing visitor numbers, length of stay, tourism consumption, accommodation, and repeat visits by district or county using the same criteria has been identified. If only the Busan average rises between 2026 and 2028, the concentration in mature hubs and the stagnation in potential hubs will be obscured.  The spatial disparity in Busan tourism is determined by differences in visit duration and expenditure conversion rates, rather than the number of resources.

East Busan has a high density of accommodations, beaches, and commercial facilities, while the Old City Center combines pedestrian areas, alleys, markets, and historical assets; conversely, West Busan has relatively long distances between key locations. Even with the same number of tourists, travel times and spending opportunities vary by region. Data comparing the number of places a tourist can visit and spending opportunities per hour by region is unavailable. When the same promotional budget and visitor targets are applied over a period of two to three years, regions with longer travel times structurally show lower performance.  It is determined that the tourism disparity within Busan stems not only from the quality of content but also from the structure of travel times.

Night tourism is a time-based economy where not only lighting and performances but also transportation for returning home, safety, commercial operations, and accommodation operate together. Differences exist in late-night transportation, commercial density, and accommodation accessibility between Haeundae and Gwangalli and other regions. Public data combining the nighttime population, late-night consumption, and transportation accessibility by district and county is limited. Even if nighttime content increases between 2026 and 2028, if regional differences in operational infrastructure persist, nighttime consumption will re-concentrate in existing core areas.  The expansion of night tourism in Busan is assessed to be asymmetrical in terms of late-night living infrastructure compared to event hosting regions.

The range of movement for foreign tourists varies depending on accessibility to language, payment, and transportation information. Independent travel is easier in representative regions that are rich in global payment and multilingual information. However, there is no confirmed evidence linking multilingual search, travel, and payment failure rates by district or county. Even if the number of foreign visitors approaches 5 million over two to three years, if the information gap persists, new tourists will concentrate in a small number of verified regions.  The spatial expansion of foreign tourism is judged to be unconfirmed in terms of the equilibrium of travel and payment information rather than the supply of content.

A target has been set to expand the number of foreign tourists from approximately 3.349 million in 2025 to 5 million in 2028. The period from 2026 to 2028 is a time when the scale of influx increases rapidly, causing investments in aviation, accommodation, content, and commercial districts to stabilize simultaneously. The visitor journey and the runtime of carrying capacity by district and county have not yet been confirmed. If the concentration of movement paths is confirmed following the increase in tourists, the cost of reversing the spatial layout of accommodation, transportation, and commercial districts will increase.  Currently, the Golden Time is determined to be before the movement paths of an additional 1.65 million tourists become fixed, rather than after reaching 5 million visitors.

In 2026, foreign tourism spending recorded 623.9 billion won in the first half of the year, and the expenditure amount emerged as an official management indicator. Tourism performance has shifted from the number of visitors alone to a combination of visitors and total consumption. However, spending per person, per night, and per hour, as well as regional diffusion, are not yet confirmed within the same framework. If total expenditure solidifies as a top-tier KPI between 2026 and 2028, external growth driven by inflation, exchange rates, and visitor growth will be combined with an increase in real value.  The "Golden Time" for the indicator is determined to be before the total expenditure indicator replaces the overall tourism value.

Festival October, Star Sea Busan, Gourmet Tourism, and Performance/Leisure/Workation are already conducting experiments to extend tourism time. Busan has entered a stage where it is verifying the combined effects of various content rather than focusing on a lack of content. However, event-specific analyses are request-based and individual, and common journey criteria have not been identified. If standardized evidence is not established over the next two to three years, indicators from different events will accumulate each year, making long-term comparisons impossible.  The "Golden Time" for content is determined to be the initial two to three years, during which different experiments can be compared using the same performance standards, rather than for business expansion.

The Gadeokdo New Airport, the North Port redevelopment, international cruises, and changes in metropolitan transportation are variables that will alter the influx and movement patterns of tourists in Busan in the long term. This creates a structure where tourism gateways and urban spaces are being reorganized simultaneously. However, a public Tourism Digital Twin linking the value of stay and scenarios for each gateway has not yet been verified. If infrastructure and tourism strategies for 2026–2028 are finalized based on conflicting demand data, a paradox may arise where the number of tourists increases but their time spent in the city center decreases.  The Infrastructure Golden Time is the period used to determine the time it takes for visitors to transition from a gateway to urban consumption, rather than the volume of visitor inflow.

12-1. Golden Time Application Case in Basic Local Governments ① — Haeundae-gu

Haeundae-gu is Busan's representative tourism hub, where Haeundae Beach, Songjeong, BEXCO, hotels, gourmet dining, and night tourism are concentrated. The issue of attracting tourists has shifted from securing new awareness to managing congestion and consumption value during peak seasons, weekends, and specific time periods. However, there is no publicly available data combining tourist types—such as duration of stay, average spending per visitor, and repeat visits—with resident congestion costs within the same region and time period. If the number of foreign tourists increases between 2026 and 2028, the increase in visitors could reach the spatial capacity limit before the value of stay.  Haeundae-gu is not a region lacking tourists; rather, it has entered a point where visitors must be re-evaluated based on time, consumption, and resident acceptance.

Accommodation and MICE in Haeundae serve as the foundation for transforming day tourism into stay-type tourism. However, public cohorts linking additional stays by event participants, companion spending, and pre-, post-, and post-event visits to the region are not identified. The structure is such that facility usage and urban consumption are recorded as separate performance metrics. Even if large-scale events and room supply expand over two to three years, if the combined effect is not measured, the actual regional added value of MICE is underestimated or overestimated.  Haeundae-gu's Golden Time is determined to be the period for establishing the net value per person and per hour of the high-density tourism zone, rather than the expansion of visitor attraction.

12-2. Golden Time Application Cases in Basic Local Governments ② — Yeongdo-gu

In Yeongdo-gu, a data analysis was requested for 2026 to verify the average length of stay of jazz performance visitors, local linked tourism, and the sales impact on nearby commercial areas. This serves as evidence that the tourism evaluation of local governments has shifted from the number of performance participants to factors such as stay duration, movement patterns, and commercial spillover. However, the analysis was based on individual requests targeting specific performances and radius areas, and it has not been confirmed that it has been regularized as a tourism journey covering the entire Yeongdo region. Unless analyses of individual events are accumulated for the period 2026–2028, the linkage effects between performances, the Arte Museum, Hanyeoul Culture Village, and Taejongdae will be recalculated each time.  Yeongdo-gu is assessed as a region where the demand for tourism AX is clear, but the permanent operation system is still in its early stages.

While Yeongdo possesses marine landscapes, cultural facilities, and village tourism, it differs from the Haeundae area in terms of accommodation, nighttime transportation, and commercial density. The structure does not allow for an immediate increase in visitors to translate directly into overnight stays and nighttime consumption. There is no publicly available data linking the time of entry into Yeongdo, the end of the stay, movement to other areas of Busan, and final payment within the region. If day-trip itineraries become entrenched over two to three years, tourists will conduct their overnight stays and nighttime consumption in other regions, even if content expands.  Yeongdo-gu’s "Golden Time" is the period for determining whether there is still time remaining to encourage second and third visits and consumption within the region, rather than simply attracting tourists.

If investments in promotion, aviation, and events aimed at 5 million foreign tourists remain fixed on the number of visitors, value per tourist and regional spread will be evaluated as lagging factors. While visitor growth in 2025 and an increase in spending in 2026 were confirmed, connections within the same travel unit were not verified. If data from the early growth period (2026–2028) is separated, it will be difficult to restore the baseline for subsequent value changes by market.  The first loss is determined not by the number of tourists, but by the travel value data from the early growth period.

Investments in hotels, commercial districts, transportation, and tourism facilities are maintained for the long term based on current tourist routes. The concentration of tourists in East Busan and the degree of dispersion in the Old City Center, Yeongdo, and West Busan are not confirmed by joint indicators. It is a structure where misidentified demand is converted into facility placement. Once investments are completed in two to three years, the cost of adjusting the regional dispersion of tourists will exceed the cost of promoting content.  The second loss is judged to be the time required to reverse the imbalance in tourism opportunities across regions.

The revenue of tourism companies and small business owners is determined more by operating hours, average transaction value, and repeat visits than by the number of visitors. Even if total expenditure increases, the scope of benefits from growth cannot be determined unless the distribution by industry and region is verified. If consumption becomes concentrated on specific platforms, large facilities, and core commercial districts between 2026 and 2028, the perceived economic conditions of local businesses will be decoupled from visitor growth.  The third loss is not the total tourism revenue, but the value added that spreads to local businesses.

The concentration of tourists can increase traffic congestion, noise, waste, housing costs, and commercial rents. Data on net value combining resident costs and tourism consumption is not available. It is a structure where tourism economic growth and a decline in resident acceptance can occur simultaneously in the same location. If resident costs are not measured for two to three years, the limits of tourism carrying capacity become apparent only after conflicts arise.  The fourth loss is determined by the resident acceptance and long-term operational feasibility of the tourism city.

Busan already possesses the demand for analysis regarding visitor numbers, foreign spending, consumption during festivals, purposes of visit, and movement and revenue by event. It is not that the data necessary for determining tourism value is completely absent, but rather that it exists within different systems. However, a common Journey ID and spatial and temporal standards have not been confirmed. Until the data definitions for 2026–2028 are solidified, there remains room to reorganize past and present projects based on the same criteria. Currently, Opportunity is determined not by securing new data, but by the time required to connect dispersed evidence into a single trip.

Increased consumption during October festivals, 68.8% driven by culinary purposes, and nightlife, performance, and leisure sports content serve as demand signals capable of extending the time tourists spend in Busan. It is not that tourists lack reasons for additional visits, but rather that movement paths between content are unconfirmed. Data regarding combined usage, extended stays, and additional spending are limited. If content solidifies into independent brands within two to three years, the combined effect of itinerary, transportation, and payment will weaken.  Currently, Opportunity is evaluated as a period for assessing the combined value of existing demand signals rather than for adding new content.

The Busan Tourism Portal, tourism statistics, and Big-Data Wave possess digital touchpoints and analytical foundations. Three stages exist: the provision of tourism information, the disclosure of statistics, and individual analysis. However, the process by which information exposure leads to actual visits, consumption, and repeat visits is not connected. As these three foundations are separately advanced between 2026 and 2028, tourist experience and policy learning will continue to be separated.  Currently, Opportunity is judged to be at a point where the decision-making connectivity of the existing three foundations can be verified, rather than through a new platform.

Haeundae, Yeongdo, the Old City Center, Gijang, and West Busan possess distinct tourism assets and time structures. Even if the entire city does not replicate the same product, assets exist that can serve as a second or third destination for visitors. However, the actual rate of movement shifting between regions is not regularly disclosed. If investment centered on the first base of entry continues for two to three years, multi-core assets remain as separate destinations rather than a single travel route.  Currently, Opportunity is evaluated based on the duration during which internal movement within the city can be assessed as the value of stay, rather than the additional creation of tourism assets.

Tourism AX Runtime

Arrival → Movement → Content → Duration of Stay → Accommodation → Consumption → Expansion of Local Commercial Areas → Satisfaction → Revisit → Net Value for Residents → Allocation of Next Tourism Resources

Visitor Growth + Value Conversion Risk

Busan's tourist and foreign spending is in a growth phase.

A single tourist's time, accommodation, consumption, regional movement, and revisit were not connected to a single outcome.

The current risk is not a lack of tourists, but a structure where an increase in visitors becomes entrenched before the increase in the city's net added value.

The period from 2026 to 2028 is a phase that determines the structure of time and money left behind by a single visit, rather than the scale of 5 million people.

The final assessment is Visitor Growth + Value Conversion Risk.

1. Number of domestic and foreign tourists
2. Visitors by nationality, age, and travel companionship
3. First-time visit and repeat visit ratio
4. Average time of stay
5. Average number of nights stayed
6. Proportion of day tourists
7. Expenditure per tourist
8. Tourist spending per night
9. Tourist spending per hour of stay
10. Tourism spending by industry
11. Tourism expenditure by district/county
12. First consumption time after arriving at each gateway
13. Secondary and tertiary movement conversion rates between tourist destinations
14. East Busan–Old Downtown–Yeongdo–West Busan Mobility Rate
15. afternoon, night, and late-night stay population
16. Overnight stay conversion rate
17. Net increase in visitors before and after the festival
18. Net increase in commercial district sales before and after the festival
19. Additional effect compared to regions where the event was not held
20. Actual food and beverage spending by gourmet tourists
21. Workation participants' stay and local consumption
22. Additional accommodation and companion spending by MICE participants
23. 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year revisit rates
24. The relationship between tourist satisfaction and revisit
25. Residents' congestion and living costs relative to tourism revenue

Data GAP: In publicly available evidence, a Busan tourism runtime connecting arrival → travel to tourist attractions → content usage → duration of stay → accommodation → payment → expansion of local commercial areas → satisfaction → revisit to the same trip timeline is not confirmed.

Runtime Chain

Tourist Influx → City Movement → Content Integration → Extension of Stay → Stay & Consumption → Regional Expansion → Revisit → Net Value for Residents → Tourism Industry Productivity

Source · Verification

• Busan Metropolitan City, Busan Tourism Statistics
• Busan Tourism Organization, 2026 Business Report
• Busan Metropolitan City, Vision to become a Global Tourism City with 5 million foreign tourists by 2028
• Busan Metropolitan City, Festival October Tourism Industry Achievements
• Busan Metropolitan City, Festival October Foreign Tourist Spending
• Busan Metropolitan City, 2030 High-Quality Stay-Type Tourism City Strategy
• Busan Metropolitan City, 2026 Promotion of Busan Gourmet Tourism
• Busan Big Data Wave: Current Status of Tourism and Festival Data Analysis
• Busan Metropolitan City's official tourism portal, Visit Busan
• Busan Metropolitan City, Promoting Busan-style Workcation

Structural insights remaining from this analysis

A city cannot own the time tourists spend there. The value of a local economy varies depending on how tourists' time is allocated among travel, waiting, searching, sightseeing, dining, and accommodation. Even the same three hours are not considered consumption time if they are spent on transportation and waiting, and they are not converted into added value for the city if tourists do not move from free tourist attractions to nearby commercial areas.

Therefore, an increase in length of stay is not equivalent to an increase in the number of nights stayed. Even without an increase in overnight stays, time spent on nightlife, gourmet dining, and performances can increase; conversely, even if overnight stays increase, Busan's net value is limited if the additional time is spent outside the local commercial district. The unit of evaluation for Busan tourism is not the number of visitors or overnight guests, but the effective time spent within a single trip.

The structure that Busan's Tourism AX must reveal is not the popularity ranking of attractions. The single judgment axis is how much of the tourists' limited time shifted from travel costs to experiences and consumption, and which regions and businesses that transition remained with. Without this connection, 5 million tourists is a large number, but the productivity of Busan's tourism industry will ultimately remain unconfirmed.

Golden Time Thesis — The competitiveness of Busan tourism is determined not by the speed at which more tourists are acquired, but by the conversion rate that transforms tourists' time from travel and waiting into experiences, accommodation, and local consumption. If this conversion rate is not measured between 2026 and 2028, 5 million visitors will remain merely the number of people passing through the city, rather than the scale of the tourism industry.