Economy Type
**Conflict-Affected Agriculture–Resource–Border Trade Economy
(Conflict-influenced agriculture, resource, and border trade economy)**
Myanmar is classified as a Conflict-Affected Agriculture–Resource–Border Trade Economy .
Myanmar's economy is based on agriculture, natural gas, garment manufacturing, food processing, minerals, forestry products, and border trade centered on China and Thailand. While it possesses significant geographical potential connecting the Indian Ocean, southwestern China, and Thailand, political and armed conflicts, power shortages, exchange rate and foreign exchange controls, and international sanctions severely restrict economic activity.
The powerful earthquake that struck in March 2025 further exacerbated existing conflicts and supply chain instability. The World Bank estimated the economic output loss due to the earthquake for the 2025/26 fiscal year at $2.6 billion, or about 4% of GDP. While some production and transportation recovered by the end of 2025, sluggish domestic demand, labor shortages, and frequent power outages persisted.
Country Definition
Myanmar is a high-risk market in Southeast Asia that possesses potential for agriculture, gas, clothing, minerals, and geopolitical corridors, but normal industrialization and supply chain operations are restricted due to conflict and institutional uncertainty.
Why It Matters
Myanmar borders China, India, Bangladesh, Laos, and Thailand, and is connected to the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Therefore, it has great potential as a western axis connecting the land and port corridors extending from southwestern China to the Indian Ocean, as well as Thailand's manufacturing supply chain.
It also possesses natural gas, agricultural products, minerals such as copper, tin, nickel, and rare earth elements, hydroelectric resources, and a young workforce. However, as the economy is heavily exposed to border controls, armed conflict, sanctions, power shortages, and informal trade, it is essential to distinguish between the potential of resources and locations and the actual feasibility of business operations.
According to UNCTAD, merchandise exports in 2024 amounted to approximately $14.9 billion and imports to approximately $12.5 billion, recording a merchandise trade surplus of about $2.5 billion. Since this includes the impact of import restraints and the export of agricultural products and resources, it is difficult to interpret this solely as a result of normal industrial competitiveness.
Korea Perspective
For South Korea, Myanmar was previously a focus of attention for its garment manufacturing, construction, finance, energy, and consumer goods markets, but currently, it is a country where the management of sanctions, human rights, payments, and safety risks takes priority over general market expansion .
The areas that can be reviewed at this stage are as follows.
- Food and agricultural productivity
- Health, medicines, and humanitarian aid
- Disaster recovery and water treatment
- Electricity and Small-Scale Solar Power
- Storage and processing of agricultural and food products
- responsible supply chain due diligence
- Protection of existing investment assets
- Market monitoring in preparation for future normalization
Key Keywords
- Political Conflict
- Agriculture
- Natural Gas
- Garment Manufacturing
- Border Trade
- Rare Earths
- China–Myanmar Corridor
- Thailand Supply Chain
- Sanctions Compliance
- Humanitarian Economy
Myanmar is the largest country in mainland Southeast Asia, with its capital in Naypyidaw and its largest commercial city in Yangon. The IMF's 2026 population estimate is approximately 55.19 million.
The economic zones are divided into the Yangon Industrial and Port Zone, the Mandalay Inland Commercial Zone, the China Border Zone, the Thailand Border Manufacturing and Trade Zone, and the Western and Southern Offshore Energy Zones.
Since the military seized power in 2021, political and armed conflicts have escalated nationwide, and the normal operation of administration, finance, transportation, education, and labor markets has been disrupted. The 2025 major earthquake exacerbated damage to infrastructure, housing, and production facilities in Mandalay and the central region.
Key Features
- Strategic location between China, India, and Thailand
- Approach to the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal
- Large rural population and agriculture
- Diverse ethnic and regional structures
- Prolonged armed conflict
- Instability in power, financial, and administrative systems
Myanmar's economy consists of agriculture, manufacturing, mining and gas, construction, wholesale and retail, transportation, and communications.
Forecasts from international agencies vary significantly due to limited access to statistics and exchange rate distortions. The ADB lowered its growth forecast to -3.0% in 2025 to account for earthquakes and macroeconomic instability, while projecting a recovery of approximately 1.6% in 2026. In contrast, the IMF's 2026 forecast projects a real growth rate of 3.0% and a consumer price inflation rate of 19.0%. Therefore, rather than relying on a single forecast, it is necessary to consider the conditions of production, prices, exchange rates, and the power sector together.
According to the ADB, inflation reached approximately 25.2% in 2025, and rising costs for food, housing, medical care, and transportation significantly increased the burden on households.
Market characteristics
- Purchasing power and domestic demand have contracted significantly.
- Discrepancy between official exchange rate and market exchange rate
- Uncertainty regarding foreign exchange allocation and import permits
- Increase in the proportion of cash and informal transactions
- Continued power shortages and logistics disruptions
- There are significant differences in market accessibility by region.
MarketHub Point
Rather than evaluating Myanmar as a general consumer market, one must first assess regional control situations, payment capabilities, power and logistics, and exposure to sanctions.
Myanmar's key industries are agriculture, natural gas, garment manufacturing, food processing, minerals, forest products, electricity, and border trade.
Agriculture centers on rice, legumes, corn, sesame, rubber, fisheries, and livestock. While it is crucial for rural employment and food security, productivity is low due to fertilizer and fuel prices, irrigation shortages, climate disasters, and transportation constraints.
Natural gas is a major source of foreign currency revenue supplied to Thailand and China. However, energy businesses must consider the risks associated with sanctions, transactions with state-owned enterprises, profit sharing, and human rights due diligence.
The garment manufacturing industry grew based on overseas orders from Europe, Japan, and Korea, but the withdrawal of international brands, power shortages, rising logistics costs, and labor rights issues weakened its competitiveness.
Copper, tin, tungsten, nickel, rare earth elements, and gemstone resources are distributed in the northern and eastern regions. However, there are significant issues regarding the transparency of production and export, the environment, human rights, and informal cross-border trade.
Key industries
- Rice, legumes, and agricultural products
- natural gas
- Clothing and footwear sewing
- Food and seafood processing
- Copper, Tin, and Rare Earths
- gemstones and jade
- hydroelectric power
- Wood and rubber
- border trade and transportation
Key Competitive Resources
- Location between China, India, and Thailand
- Abundant agricultural land
- natural gas and minerals
- Low potential labor costs
- Indian Ocean accessibility
- China-Thailand Athletics Corridor
MarketHub Point
While Myanmar's resources and workforce hold great potential, they are difficult to evaluate as normal industrial assets unless issues regarding supply chain transparency, human rights, sanctions, and regional controls are resolved.
Myanmar's major exports are natural gas, clothing, rice, beans, corn, seafood, metals, minerals, and rubber. Major imports are fuel, machinery, vehicles, electrical and electronic goods, pharmaceuticals, chemical products, and industrial intermediate goods.
According to UNCTAD, merchandise exports in 2024 amounted to approximately $14.92 billion, and imports to approximately $12.45 billion. In the same year, GDP was estimated at approximately $46.1 billion, and GDP per capita at approximately $846.
China and Thailand are the largest trading and cross-border logistics partners. China is important for the supply of raw materials, machinery, and consumer goods, as well as for the purchase of agricultural products and minerals, while Thailand is connected to natural gas, agricultural products, labor, and national economic development. India, Singapore, and Japan are also major trading partners.
Border passages may be repeatedly closed or delayed due to armed conflict and changes in control. The ports of Yangon and Thilawa are also affected by power, customs, and foreign exchange regulations.
major trading partners
- china
- thailand
- Singapore
- India
- japan
- malaysia
- Indonesia
- korea
- Bangladesh
Supply chain characteristics
- High dependence on China and Thailand
- Border trade accounts for a large proportion.
- Exports centered on gas, agricultural products, and clothing
- Strict import licensing and foreign exchange controls
- Low reliability of ports, roads, and power
- There is a high risk of informal and roundabout trade.
MarketHub Point
For the Myanmar supply chain, priority must be given to verifying controlled areas, border openness, sanctions targets, end beneficiaries, and the feasibility of payment collection, rather than price.
Market Characteristics
The Myanmar market is difficult to explain solely by the central government's official regulations. Regional control bodies, access to banking and foreign exchange, logistics routes, and workplace safety determine actual business operations.
Existing investors must manage asset protection, employee safety, contract performance, the ultimate attribution of taxes and royalties, and compliance with international sanctions. New investments must evaluate legal, reputational, and human rights risks before high potential for returns.
Opportunities
- Food production and agricultural technology
- Irrigation, storage, and cold chain
- Essential medicines and medical equipment
- Solar power and stand-alone power
- Water treatment and sanitation
- Earthquake and Flood Disaster Recovery
- Small-scale processing of agricultural and food products
- Responsible supply chain tracking
- Survey on preparations for future economic normalization
Risks
- Armed Conflict · Workplace Safety
- International Sanctions and Export Controls
- Military-related corporate transaction risk
- Human rights, forced labor, reputational risk
- Foreign exchange, remittance, and payment collection
- Power outage/communication interruption
- Border and port closures
- Contract and law enforcement uncertainty
- Earthquakes, floods, and cyclones
The medium-term outlook for Myanmar's economy is more likely to be influenced by political and conflict situations, power supply, exchange rates, and international relations than by general business cycles.
The World Bank assessed that factory utilization rates and freight transport improved somewhat in the second half of 2025, but stated that weak domestic demand, labor shortages, a lack of reconstruction funds, and frequent power outages would limit recovery.
The ADB forecasts a contraction in 2025 followed by a low level of recovery in 2026, while the IMF projects a higher growth of 3.0%. The gap in forecasts itself demonstrates the high uncertainty surrounding Myanmar's economic data and policy environment.
Changes to Watch Out For in the Future
- Armed Conflict and Changes in Regional Control
- 2025 Earthquake Recovery
- Exchange rate and foreign exchange regulations
- Normalization of power supply
- China-Thailand border opening
- natural gas production and export
- Clothing Orders and International Brand Policy
- Agricultural production and food prices
- International Sanctions and Financial Access
- humanitarian aid and reconstruction needs
Market Position
High-Risk Mainland Southeast Asia Corridor + Resource and Agriculture Base
An agricultural, resource, and corridor market connecting China, India, Thailand, and the Indian Ocean, but with very high risks of conflict, sanctions, power, and finance.
Key Opportunities
- Agriculture and food security
- Water Treatment and Health
- Small solar power
- disaster recovery
- Storage and processing of agricultural and food products
- Supply chain tracking
- Existing investment asset management
- Long-term market monitoring
Recommended Strategy
Screen
Priority is given to investigating sanctioned entities, military-related companies, end beneficiaries, and human rights risks.
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Map
Differentiates control situations by region, borders and ports, power, and payment routes.
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Limit
The scope is limited to essential goods, humanitarian, and low-risk businesses, as well as the protection of existing assets.
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Prepare
We will continuously accumulate data based on agriculture, power, logistics, and manufacturing in preparation for the possibility of political and economic normalization.
Final Assessment
While Myanmar holds significant long-term potential for agriculture, resources, labor, and the Indian Ocean Corridor, it is currently a high-risk market where conflicts, sanctions, human rights, and settlement risks must be managed more than growth opportunities.
Scope of investigation
This material was cross-reviewed based on the latest economic, trade, disaster, and market data from international organizations.
international organizations
- World Bank
- International Monetary Fund
- Asian Development Bank
- UNCTAD
- World Trade Organization
- International Labor Organization
- United Nations OCHA
Key research data
- World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2025
- World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor, December 2025
- World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor, June 2026
- IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026
- ADB Asian Development Outlook, September 2025
- ADB Myanmar Economy Data
- UNCTAD Myanmar General Profile 2025
- World Bank Myanmar Earthquake Economic Assessment
Writing Verification
This document was prepared in accordance with the following principles.
- Distinguishing between the 2025 earthquake and existing economic crises
- Specify the difference between IMF and ADB growth forecasts
- Verify 2024 merchandise imports and exports using official UNCTAD statistics
- Distinguishing between official trade surpluses and actual industrial recovery
- Balanced evaluation of agriculture, gas, clothing, minerals, and corridor industries
- Focus on business and supply chain risks rather than judging political legitimacy
- Verification of sanctions, human rights, and end beneficiaries reflected as core conditions
- Application of a principle of restricted and selective access rather than new entry for South Korean companies
- Apply MarketHub Country Intelligence standard template
Myanmar is a strategic corridor country in Southeast Asia based on agriculture, natural gas, garment manufacturing, minerals, and border trade with China and Thailand.
Its location connecting China, India, Thailand, and the Indian Ocean, along with its abundant land, resources, and labor force, provides long-term potential. However, due to prolonged political and armed conflicts, power shortages, foreign exchange controls, and sanctions since 2021, this potential has not translated into actual industrial growth.
The massive earthquake in 2025 dealt an additional blow to already vulnerable production, logistics, and housing infrastructure. Although some factory operations and transportation recovered by the end of 2025, high prices, weak domestic demand, and unstable power supply persist.
The Republic of Korea must not approach Myanmar as a general emerging consumer market or a low-cost manufacturing base. Currently, the focus should be on limited sectors such as essential medicines, agriculture and food, water treatment, standalone power, disaster recovery, and the protection of existing investment assets, while sanctions, human rights, ultimate beneficiaries, and settlement risks must be verified first in all transactions.
Final evaluation
Myanmar possesses an agricultural, resource, and border trade base as well as a strategic location, but it is a 'conflict-affected agriculture, resource, and border trade economy' where conflict and institutional collapse constrain its economic potential.
MarketHub classifies Myanmar not as a short-term sales and investment market, but as a high-risk Southeast Asian supply chain observation market where one must monitor political, security, sanctions, and human rights risks in real time and prepare for essential industries and the possibility of long-term normalization .