I. Macroeconomic environment and trade risks

division

Main contents

Basis and Source

global raw materials marketDemand for minerals and metals remains robust despite China's economic slowdown.Bloomberg Commodities 2025.8
Key Influencing FactorsGrowth in the EV and battery industries → Soaring demand for nickel and lithium ore.Reuters Metals 2025.7
Korean industrial structureHigh dependence on mineral imports, particularly steel, non-ferrous metals, and battery materials (self-sufficiency rate: 0.2%)Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy Resource Supply and Demand Report 2025
Geopolitical risksResource supply instability in Russia and Africa, leading to rising logistics costsIEA Mineral Outlook 2025

Korea has an import structure based on the steel, non-ferrous metal, and secondary battery industries , and in particular, with 99% of its ore imports dependent on foreign countries, supply chain risk management is a key challenge.

Ⅱ. Analysis of Import Item Status and Characteristics

item

Details

Data source

HS code26 (Ores, Slag and Ash)UN Comtrade
Main detailed items2601 (iron ore), 2603 (copper ore), 2604 (nickel ore), 2610 (chromium), 2615 (rare earth elements)Customs Service Trade Statistics
Import volume in 2024Approximately USD 22.7 billion (3.3% of total imports)KCS, OEC 2025
Average annual growth rate ('20–'24)+4.8%Industrial Statistics Yearbook
Major demand sourcesPOSCO, Hyundai Steel, LS-Nikko Copper, Ecopro BM, etc. 

HS26 items are raw materials for the basic materials industry and are directly used in steel, non-ferrous metals, batteries, and refining processes.

III. Characteristics of major importing countries and supply chains

ranking

importing country

specific gravity(%)

Main items

Features and Risks

1australia39ironstoneStable long-term contracts, centered on maritime transport
2brazil22ironstoneLong transportation distances and weather risks
3Chile11copper oreBattery and non-ferrous materials are key
4Indonesia10nickel oreKey raw materials for EV batteries
5South Africa6chromium manganese orePolitical and labor risks

More than 88% of imports originate from the top five countries. In particular, Indonesia and Chile are highly concentrated in strategic metals such as nickel and copper .

Ⅳ. Import volume and supply stability

division

2023 Q3

2024 Q3

Increase/decrease (%)

note

iron ore (thousand tons)63,20065,100+3.0For use in POSCO steel mill
copper ore4,8705,300+8.8LS Nikko and Korea Zinc at the center
nickel ore2,2602,570+13.7For secondary battery raw materials
slag and ash1,8501,920+3.8Cement and recycled materials
total+6.7Steady growth

Nickel ore imports are rapidly increasing due to the expansion of the battery industry , and copper ore imports are also increasing in tandem with the expansion of refineries.

V. Unit Price and Price Trends (Extension A)

Item

2024 Q1

2024 Q2

2024 Q3

change(%)

iron ore (USD/ton)112117121+3.4
copper ore8,4708,8609,150+3.3
nickel ore17,20018,40019,050+3.5
chrome ore7,4507,6007,800+2.6

Prices for metals overall are rising by 3-4% , with demand for metals related to EVs and renewable energy supporting prices.

Ⅵ. Seasonal Patterns (Extension B)

branch

characteristic

Import Volatility Index (0–1)

Q1Inventory accumulator0.44
Q2Expanding steel production0.61
Q3Typhoon, port variables, and transportation delays0.72
Q4Regular maintenance machine0.55

Import concentration in the Q2-Q3 period, especially with regard to rising transportation costs and port risk management, is crucial.

VII. Tariff and Non-Tariff Barriers and Alternative Industries

item

detail

Tariff rateBasic 0~3%, most mineral resources are duty-free
Non-tariffCountry of Origin Certification, ESG Mineral Regulations (Critical Minerals Act), and Strengthened Import Inspection
Domestic alternative industriesRecycling of smelting byproducts and recycling of slag
Future tasksExpanding overseas mine holdings and operating public resource funds to secure mineral resources.

As competition for securing resources intensifies, Korea is expanding its public-private joint venture overseas mining investment model .

Ⅷ. ESG·Net Zero Correlation

item

evaluation

analysis

Environmental impactawardMining and transportation stages generate significant carbon emissions.
ESG RiskMedium to highHuman rights and environmental issues in Indonesia and Africa
Net Zero ContributionmiddlePositive effects of expanding recycling

It is one of the product groups with the highest supply chain ESG risks, and eco-friendly mining, refining, and recycling technologies are key countermeasures.

Ⅸ. Country-specific risk indices

importing country

Political/Policy Risk (0–1)

Logistics Risk (0–1)

Comprehensive Trust Index

australia0.210.290.83
brazil0.340.360.70
Chile0.280.310.76
Indonesia0.420.380.63
South Africa0.550.480.55

Average Trust Index = 0.69 (Moderate)
Supply chain restructuring is underway, centering on stable countries (Australia and Chile), but dependence on Indonesia and Africa is a risk factor.

Ⅹ. Key Buyers and Industry Links

industry

Major companies

Imported items

note

steelPOSCO, Hyundai Steeliron ore, slagStable long-term contract
non-ferrous metalsLS Nikko Copper, Korea Zinccopper and zinc oreFor refining and alloy production
Battery materialsEcoPro·POSCO Future Mnickel and lithium oreKey to EV cathode materials
Cement and MaterialsSsangyong C&E and Hanil CementslagUtilization of circular resources

The uses are clearly divided by industry, with steel (60%), non-ferrous metals (25%), and batteries (10%) accounting for the majority.

Ⅺ. AI Trade Index and 3-Month Forecast

characteristic

Currently (2025 Q3)

Compared to the previous quarter (Δ%)

analysis

ΔImport+3.6%▲1.1Increase in nickel and copper
ΔPrice+3.2%▲0.9International raw material prices are on the rise
ΔCountryShare+0.4%▲0.2Increased presence in Australia and Chile
Trust Index0.69=Maintain normal level
Forecast (3M)+4.1%Demand for EV metals continues to rise

Summary: Ore imports are steadily rising. Iron ore is flat, while non-ferrous metals and battery raw material ores are the mainstays. Imports are expected to increase by approximately 4% over the next three months .

Ⅻ. Policy Recommendations and System Improvement Roadmap

division

Suggestion

Expected effect

1Expanding overseas mine equity investments (focused on Australia and Chile)Resource acquisition stability ↑
2Introduction of an ESG mineral certification systemSupply chain risk ↓
3Commercialization of domestic recycling smelting technologyCarbon and raw material reduction
4Building an AI-based raw materials procurement prediction systemIncreased responsiveness to price fluctuations
5Expansion of the strategic reserve of rare metalsStrengthening industrial security
ⅩⅢ. General Conclusion

HS26 (ore, slag, and ash) Imports Trade Index – 2025 Q3
ΔImport +3.6% , ΔPrice +3.2% , Trust 0.69 , Forecast (3M) +4.1%
Outlook: Moderate increase (Positive-Neutral).
Imports are expected to continue to increase gradually due to the expansion of the EV and non-ferrous metal industries, and
supply chain diversification and ESG mining certification management are key future strategies.