The eco-friendly, hydrogen, and renewable energy industries are rapidly expanding, driven by strengthening international environmental standards such as carbon neutrality, CBAM, and RE100, as well as the restructuring of clean energy supply chains
. Global energy transition investment is projected to exceed $2 trillion between 2025 and 2026, and Korea can secure access to technology, parts, and procurement markets
through FTAs. However, differences in the EU's CBAM, the US's IRA, and Japan and the UAE's hydrogen procurement standards pose non-tariff risks.
Risk factors | 2025-2026 Outlook | Influence (1~5) | Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment) | 2026 Commercial Implementation Requires Low-Carbon Certification | 5 | Establishing emission factor, LCA, and MRV data is essential. |
| IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) | Local procurement ratio: 40-60% | 4 | Diversification of parts procurement through FTAs and CEPAs is necessary. |
| Hydrogen certification (H2 Global, etc.) | Progress toward standardizing country of origin and carbon footprint | 4 | The need to integrate technical standards within FTAs |
| Renewable Energy Certification | Mandatory RE100 and K-eco labels | 3 | Strengthening international certification and REC management |
| Supply Chain Risk | Instability in the supply and demand of raw materials and rare earth elements | 3 | Accumulated use of regional production bases and FTAs |
FTAs offer tangible benefits, including tariff reductions for solar, wind, and energy storage components , cooperation in clean energy procurement , and technology exchanges in hydrogen production, storage, and transportation
. In particular, the Korea-UAE CEPA, the Korea-EU FTA, and the RCEP ease rules of origin for hydrogen and energy equipment and include green procurement provisions , enhancing corporate export competitiveness.
field | FTA applicability | Major challenges | Management Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar module (HS8541) | Tariff reduction through RCEP and EUFTA | CBAM compliance certification | LCA·EPD secured |
| Wind power and turbines (HS8502) | Origin cumulative utilization glass | Procurement standards inconsistency | Concurrent possession of CE certification |
| Hydrogen and Fuel Cells (HS8405/8507) | CEPA and US-FTA cooperation are possible. | Differences in certification and safety regulations | Compliance with international standards and H2 certification |
| ESS·Battery (HS8501) | CEPA and RCEP tariff benefits | Battery Origin Management | Parallel RE100 and low-carbon certification |
Major markets such as the EU, UAE, and the US have differing carbon, safety, and procurement standards . Therefore, harmonizing regulations within FTAs can ease entry barriers.
RCEP and CEPA, with their technology and component cooperation provisions, have significant practical impact, while CBAM remains a key risk.
market | Main items | MFN (basic rate) | When FTA is applied | non-tariff barriers | Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | Solar energy, hydrogen, and ESS | 2~6% | 0% | CBAM·CE·LCA | Low-carbon certification and MRV are required |
| USA | Wind power, ESS, and H2 components | 0~5% | IRA influence | Local procurement and tax reduction | CEPA and FTA cooperation are necessary in parallel. |
| UAE | Hydrogen and fuel cells | 5~10% | Phase-out through CEPA | Coordination of technology and procurement regulations | Easy entry into the EPC and procurement markets |
| Japan and ASEAN | Solar energy and components | 3~8% | RCEP cumulative utilization | Technical certification deviation | Intra-regional supply chain advantage |
The eco-friendly industry is facing strengthened regulations across ESG, including carbon emissions, recycling, and energy efficiency
. The expansion of CBAM application (from steel to cement, aluminum, electricity, hydrogen, and ammonia) is expected to have a direct impact on the entire hydrogen economy.
System/Issue | Core requirements | Influence (1~5) | react |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBAM | LCA·MRV·Emissions Reporting | 5 | Building internationally recognized low-carbon data |
| ESG procurement | Mandatory environmental performance and recycled materials | 4 | Supply of EPD·RE100-based products |
| H2 certification | Hydrogen Carbon Footprint Certification | 4 | Simultaneous acquisition of EU and UAE certifications |
| circular economy | Recycling and reuse of waste materials | 3 | Application of EPR·Green Design |
Korea: Promoting a Hub Focused on Hydrogen Production, Fuel Cells, and ESS Technologies
UAE and Saudi Arabia: Expanding Cooperation on Clean Hydrogen and Ammonia Procurement Based on CEPA
EU: Focus on RE100·CBAM-compliant technology exports and low-carbon certification
ASEAN: Diversifying Solar Module and ESS Assembly Production Bases
US: Strengthening ROK-US Technology Cooperation through IRA Linkage
Global news sentiment (α), green policy momentum (β), and industrial sentiment (λ) are integrated.
The hydrogen and renewable energy industries are expected to show a gradual upward trend in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by the cumulative effects of CEPA and RCEP and increased demand in response to the CBAM agreement .
variable | Δ(%) or exponent | analysis |
|---|---|---|
| ΔExport_now | +2.8 | Expanding exports centered on solar energy and ESS |
| ΔImport_now | +1.5 | Increase in imports of hydrogen equipment and parts |
| ΔPrice_now | +0.6 | Reflecting the increase in raw material and carbon emissions |
| ΔSignal_now | +0.037 | Strengthening Positive News and ESG Momentum |
| ΔFTAEffect | +0.36 | Visualizing the cumulative effects of CEPA and RCEP |
| Forecast_3M | +0.58 | 3-month gradual rise forecast |
Formula (summary): Forecast_3M = 0.5·ΔSignal + 0.3·ΔFTAEffect + 0.2·ΔPrice
field | Suggestion | Executor | Expected effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBAM response | Building a Low-Carbon Hydrogen and LCA Certification Platform | Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and Ministry of Environment | Stabilizing EU exports |
| Utilizing FTA procurement | Expansion of the Green Procurement Chapter within CEPA and EUFTA | Trade Headquarters·KOTRA | Expanding EPC and plant entry |
| Hydrogen certification | Simultaneous acquisition of internationally recognized H2 certification system | Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and Hydrogen Association | Gaining trust in the global market |
| RE100·ESG | Expanding the renewable energy mandate and incentives | Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy and Ministry of Environment | Strengthening global corporate ties |
| Technology and investment attraction | Establishment of Korea-UAE and Korea-EU Technology Funds | Ministry of Strategy and Finance and Industrial Bank of Korea | Promotion of overseas expansion |
The FTA simultaneously supports exports of hydrogen and renewable energy technologies and entry into CBAM-compliant procurement .
Forecast_3M: +0.58 — Reflecting the effects of CEPA and RCEP, and increasing demand for RE100 and Net Zero.
Recommended strategies: ① Cumulative use of CEPA and RCEP ② Establishment of hydrogen certification and LCA systems ③ Strengthening response to RE100 and CBAM ④ Expansion of technology diplomacy centered on green procurement.
